luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Panthers at Packers, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Packers 16–13, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): R. Fitzgerald made 49-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Green Bay Packers 13

November 2, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −12.5

Luck index +73 Panthers very lucky · −73 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 28 GB 14
  2. 2 CAR 27 GB 20
  3. 3 CAR 16 GB 13
  4. 4 CAR 3 GB 6
  5. 5 CAR 10 GB 14
  6. 6 CAR 8 GB 15
  7. 7 CAR 7 GB 17
  8. 8 CAR 3 GB 16
  9. 9 CAR 3 GB 21
  10. 10 CAR 7 GB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 27% of them, Packers 73%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.7%
Panthers by 9–165.6%
Panthers by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation6.3%
Packers by 1–828.3%
Packers by 9–1622.5%
Packers by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 3, without the luck Panthers by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 49 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 49 yds made · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 5 for 39 yards, Packers 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 12:51 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 9 yards +7% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 9:30 False Start on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 8:25 False Start on the Packers (Christian Watson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 7:53 Illegal Formation on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 4:46 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 5 yards 0% GB +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +6% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 1:04 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +5% CAR +1.1 pts
Q3 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 3 yards +2% CAR +1.7 pts
Q3 2:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers (Rico Dowdle), 15 yards +7% GB +1.1 pts
Q4 10:08 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% GB +2.6 pts
Q4 8:52 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.3 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:00 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% GB CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:08 The Packers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q3 10:38 B. McManus missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +13% CAR GB: Turnover
4 Q3 1:28 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% GB GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 11:45 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% CAR GB: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 5:50 The Packers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:35 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +12% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:01 R. Fitzgerald made 49-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +26% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dontayvion Wicks (GB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cade Mays (CAR C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 51% · Packers 49%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
1.8 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 27% · Packers 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Panthers · Packers

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