luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Jaguars at Raiders, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Raiders 30–29, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

The Jaguars won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 0:16 left): the Raiders’ two-point try failed, worth 42 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final (OT)

Jacksonville Jaguars 30
Las Vegas Raiders 29

November 2, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −2.5

Luck index +77 Jaguars very lucky · −77 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 27 LV 14
  2. 2 JAX 20 LV 17
  3. 3 JAX 14 LV 16
  4. 4 JAX 10 LV 14
  5. 5 JAX 20 LV 27
  6. 6 JAX 7 LV 17
  7. 7 JAX 17 LV 30
  8. 8 JAX 10 LV 24
  9. 9 JAX 17 LV 35
  10. 10 JAX 3 LV 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Jaguars won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.

32 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.07 better by 0.20
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.14 worse by 0.10
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.02 better by 0.22
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.10 worse by 0.17

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 23% of them, Raiders 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.9%
Jaguars by 9–165.9%
Jaguars by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation4.3%
Raiders by 1–827.9%
Raiders by 9–1624.3%
Raiders by 17+21.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 1, without the luck Raiders by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 68 yds made · 51% expected
  • C. Little, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Little, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 9 for 80 yards, Raiders 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Raiders (Daniel Carlson), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX 0.0 pts
Q1 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 11:44 False Start on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.4 pts
Q1 9:09 False Start on the Jaguars (Hunter Long), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q1 8:04 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Malcolm Koonce), 15 yards +6% JAX +2.2 pts
Q1 2:03 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 8:47 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% LV +3.2 pts
Q2 7:02 Illegal Motion on the Jaguars (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 6:33 Illegal Motion on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 3:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 12 yards +4% LV +1.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 9:08 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 15 yards +5% LV +2.1 pts
Q3 6:56 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 12:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 15 yards +11% LV +1.4 pts
Q4 7:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Devin White), 15 yards +6% JAX +1.8 pts
QOT 0:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 8 yards +5% LV +1.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:47 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 890 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +14% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:04 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +19% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:26 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +12% LV JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 0:20 C. Little made 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 11 of 16 from 45+ before +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 QOT 2:00 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +39% LV LV: Touchdown
8 QOT 0:16 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +42% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 39% · Raiders 61%

Final margin
Jaguars by 1
Luck in points
2.2 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 23% · Raiders 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Jaguars · Raiders

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