2025 season · final
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2025: game by game
The Jaguars went 13–4 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.6 wins. Luck added 4.4: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Panthers | W 26–10 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 2 | @ Bengals | L 27–31 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 17–10 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 4 | @ 49ers | W 26–21 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 5 | vs Chiefs | W 31–28 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 6 | vs Seahawks | L 12–20 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 7 | vs Rams | L 7–35 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 9 | @ Raiders | W 30–29 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 10 | @ Texans | L 29–36 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 11 | vs Chargers | W 35–6 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | @ Cardinals | W 27–24 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 13 | @ Titans | W 25–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 14 | vs Colts | W 36–19 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | W 48–20 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 16 | @ Broncos | W 34–20 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 17 | @ Colts | W 23–17 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 18 | vs Titans | W 41–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Wild Card | vs Bills | L 24–27 | 56% | −56 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.83 | +13.1 |
| Injuries | +0.66 | +24.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.32 | +9.2 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.19 | +7.9 |
| Kicks | +0.06 | +14.1 |
| Drops | −0.95 | −32.2 |