luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Jaguars at Broncos, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Broncos 34–20, but the Broncos played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:55 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 34
Denver Broncos 20

December 21, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −3.5

Luck index +67 Jaguars very lucky · −67 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Broncos win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 34 DEN 16
  2. 2 JAX 28 DEN 19
  3. 3 JAX 23 DEN 21
  4. 4 JAX 21 DEN 23
  5. 5 JAX 17 DEN 21
  6. 6 JAX 37 DEN 44
  7. 7 JAX 6 DEN 16
  8. 8 JAX 16 DEN 30
  9. 9 JAX 9 DEN 28
  10. 10 JAX 12 DEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 33% of them, Broncos 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+5.3%
Jaguars by 9–169.8%
Jaguars by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Broncos by 1–825.1%
Broncos by 9–1619.4%
Broncos by 17+20.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 14, without the luck Jaguars by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 44 yds missed · 82% expected
  • W. Lutz, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. Little, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Little, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 2 for 20 yards, Broncos 6 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:47 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q1 2:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (P.J. Locke), 15 yards +12% JAX +2.4 pts
Q2 14:28 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 14:22 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 5 yards +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 13:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Antonio Johnson), 15 yards +6% DEN +1.8 pts
Q3 10:49 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Malcolm Roach), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +1.7 pts
Q3 7:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Jahdae Barron), 11 yards +6% JAX +2.0 pts
Q3 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Dondrea Tillman), 10 yards +1% JAX +1.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:15 W. Lutz missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +11% JAX DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:30 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (P.J. Locke), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3165 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:51 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:55 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Jahdae Barron), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 336 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:55 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +11% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Jones (DEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 60% · Broncos 40%

Final margin
Jaguars by 14
Luck in points
12.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 33% · Broncos 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Jaguars · Broncos

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