luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Vikings at Giants, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 16–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 37 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 16
New York Giants 13

December 21, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +50 Vikings lucky · −50 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 15 NYG 0
  2. 2 MIN 16 NYG 6
  3. 3 MIN 28 NYG 21
  4. 4 MIN 6 NYG 3
  5. 5 MIN 14 NYG 13
  6. 6 MIN 10 NYG 13
  7. 7 MIN 10 NYG 15
  8. 8 MIN 9 NYG 16
  9. 9 MIN 7 NYG 18
  10. 10 MIN 6 NYG 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 50% of them, Giants 50%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+5.1%
Vikings by 9–1613.9%
Vikings by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation8.9%
Giants by 1–826.7%
Giants by 9–1613.3%
Giants by 17+5.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Vikings by 5.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 43 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Sauls, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Sauls, 39 yds made · 84% expected
  • W. Reichard, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 11 for 90 yards, Giants 11 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Giants (Ben Sauls), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q1 8:01 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 15 yards, wiping out the play +9% NYG +3.1 pts
Q2 9:25 False Start on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 8:19 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 7:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 15 yards +6% MIN +1.4 pts
Q2 5:51 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% MIN +3.6 pts
Q2 3:45 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +5% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 1:53 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Tyrone Tracy Jr.), 10 yards +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 14:25 Encroachment on the Vikings (Levi Drake Rodriguez), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 14:08 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards +7% MIN +1.3 pts
Q3 13:36 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q3 12:05 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.6 pts
Q3 11:15 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 10 yards +4% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 7:34 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +1.1 pts
Q3 5:35 Illegal Formation on the Vikings (Sione Takitaki), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 2:53 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Eric Wilson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +20% NYG +4.9 pts
Q4 13:03 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.2 pts
Q4 8:38 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards +3% MIN +1.0 pts
Q4 8:03 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 3:24 Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards +8% NYG +1.3 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:46 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% NYG MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 5:51 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 720 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +15% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q2 3:45 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedThe Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDelay of Game on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% MIN NYG: Punt
4 Q2 0:25 The Vikings fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +37% NYG MIN: End of half
5 Q3 1:59 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Eric Wilson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4954 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +20% NYG NYG: Field goal
7 Q4 9:44 The Vikings converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 2:05 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +21% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (MIN DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Metellus (MIN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 70% · Giants 30%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 50% · Giants 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Vikings · Giants

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