luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 20, 2025

Packers at Bears, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Packers 22–16, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Bears were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): the Bears converted 4th & 4, worth 29 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 16
Chicago Bears 22

December 20, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −1.5

Luck index +63 Bears very lucky · −63 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 GB 30 CHI 7
  2. 2 GB 24 CHI 10
  3. 3 GB 35 CHI 24
  4. 4 GB 14 CHI 6
  5. 5 GB 21 CHI 17
  6. 6 GB 26 CHI 24
  7. 7 GB 17 CHI 19
  8. 8 GB 30 CHI 34
  9. 9 GB 15 CHI 24
  10. 10 GB 6 CHI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 63% of them, Bears 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+14.8%
Packers by 9–1620.4%
Packers by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Bears by 1–819.7%
Bears by 9–169.6%
Bears by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Packers: the final margin was Bears by 6, without the luck Bears by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Santos, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 4 for 40 yards, Bears 10 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (D'Marco Jackson), 15 yards +3% GB +1.6 pts
Q1 13:20 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Austin Booker), 15 yards +9% GB +1.5 pts
Q2 10:47 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 5 yards +3% CHI +0.3 pts
Q2 10:02 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 8:21 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Austin Booker), 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 0:51 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.2 pts
Q3 3:03 False Start on the Packers (Luke Musgrave), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +1.0 pts
Q3 0:39 Taunting on the Packers (Jayden Reed), 15 yards +4% CHI +1.5 pts
Q3 0:33 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Elijah Hicks), 10 yards +1% GB +1.3 pts
Q4 11:01 Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yards +4% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 10:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 15 yards +2% GB +2.3 pts
Q4 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +2.0 pts
Q4 3:15 Face Mask on the Packers (Warren Brinson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% CHI +3.2 pts
Q4 2:48 Illegal Shift on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% GB +1.3 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:20 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Austin Booker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 717 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +9% GB GB: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 9:51 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% CHI GB: Field goal
3 Q4 11:01 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2081 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +14% GB CHI: Field goal
4 Q4 1:59 Onside kick recovered by the BearsSpecial teams +11% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:32 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% GB CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:28 The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +29% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 QOT 6:58 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +14% CHI GB: Turnover on downs
8 QOT 5:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +15% CHI CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rome Odunze (CHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Evan Williams (GB S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 13% · Bears 87%

Final margin
Bears by 6
Luck in points
0.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 63% · Bears 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Packers · Bears

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