luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Steelers at Lions, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Lions 29–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:25 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 45 points of win probability to the Steelers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:08 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 29
Detroit Lions 24

December 21, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −7.5

Luck index +38 Steelers lucky · −38 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Lions win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 34 DET 10
  2. 2 PIT 34 DET 17
  3. 3 PIT 26 DET 14
  4. 4 PIT 29 DET 21
  5. 5 PIT 28 DET 23
  6. 6 PIT 27 DET 24
  7. 7 PIT 18 DET 21
  8. 8 PIT 17 DET 24
  9. 9 PIT 9 DET 19
  10. 10 PIT 13 DET 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 62% of them, Lions 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+15.8%
Steelers by 9–1617.1%
Steelers by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation2.6%
Lions by 1–818.4%
Lions by 9–1612.7%
Lions by 17+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 5, without the luck Lions by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 59 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Bates, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Boswell, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 37 yds missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 8 for 89 yards, Lions 7 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (Ben Skowronek), 15 yards +5% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 6:26 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 10 yards +3% DET +1.0 pts
Q2 1:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 2:03 Offensive Offside on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 1:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DET +3.0 pts
Q4 14:58 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Trevor Nowaske), 10 yards +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q4 14:44 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 7:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 10 yards +4% DET +1.0 pts
Q4 6:36 Illegal Shift on the Lions (Shane Zylstra), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% PIT +1.6 pts
Q4 3:12 Defensive Holding on the Lions (D.J. Reader), 5 yards +1% PIT +1.1 pts
Q4 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Kyle Dugger), 14 yards +12% DET +1.9 pts
Q4 1:24 Tripping on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards, wiping out the play +21% DET +1.0 pts
Q4 0:25 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play +45% PIT +3.5 pts
Q4 0:22 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 0:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play +99% PIT +11.8 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:15 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +14% PIT DET: Field goal
2 Q3 12:40 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% PIT PIT: Turnover
3 Q4 8:45 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +16% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:09 C. Boswell missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +19% DET –
5 Q4 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Kyle Dugger), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 5200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +12% DET DET: End of game
6 Q4 1:24 Tripping on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4850 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +21% DET DET: End of game
7 Q4 0:25 The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 386 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +45% PIT –
8 Q4 0:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 4769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +99% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DET OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kayode Awosika (DET G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brock Wright (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trystan Colon (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • James Pierre (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 48% · Lions 52%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
6.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 62% · Lions 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Steelers · Lions

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