2025 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2025: game by game
The Steelers went 10–7 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.8 wins. Luck added 2.2: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jets | W 34–32 | 12% | +88 |
| Week 2 | vs Seahawks | L 17–31 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | W 21–14 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 4 | vs Vikings | W 24–21 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 6 | vs Browns | W 23–9 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 7 | @ Bengals | L 31–33 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | L 25–35 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 9 | vs Colts | W 27–20 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 10 | @ Chargers | L 10–25 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–12 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 12 | @ Bears | L 28–31 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 13 | vs Bills | L 7–26 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 14 | @ Ravens | W 27–22 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 15 | vs Dolphins | W 28–15 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 16 | @ Lions | W 29–24 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | L 6–13 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 18 | vs Ravens | W 26–24 | 40% | +60 |
| Wild Card | vs Texans | L 6–30 | 26% | −26 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +2.42 | +18.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.48 | +14.2 |
| Injuries | +0.30 | +11.6 |
| Kicks | +0.23 | −3.5 |
| Drops | +0.11 | +7.5 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | −12.5 |