luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Steelers at Browns, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 13–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:29 left): the Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 11 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 6
Cleveland Browns 13

December 28, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −4.5

Luck index +48 Browns lucky · −48 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 23 CLE 2
  2. 2 PIT 34 CLE 21
  3. 3 PIT 20 CLE 12
  4. 4 PIT 17 CLE 13
  5. 5 PIT 26 CLE 24
  6. 6 PIT 17 CLE 19
  7. 7 PIT 19 CLE 24
  8. 8 PIT 12 CLE 20
  9. 9 PIT 3 CLE 16
  10. 10 PIT 0 CLE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 48% of them, Browns 52%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+8.7%
Steelers by 9–1614.1%
Steelers by 1–822.5%
Level after regulation7.4%
Browns by 1–822.4%
Browns by 9–1615.6%
Browns by 17+9.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 7, without the luck Browns by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 4 for 34 yards, Browns 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:26 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +4.4 pts
Q1 4:00 Taunting on the Browns (Rayshawn Jenkins), 15 yards +3% PIT +2.1 pts
Q2 11:32 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q2 0:17 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.2 pts
Q3 11:17 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +2.3 pts
Q3 10:53 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 15 yards +4% CLE +2.5 pts
Q3 7:58 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 12:53 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 9:55 False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 9:44 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 6 yards +2% PIT +0.5 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:54 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q2 5:03 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% PIT CLE: Punt
3 Q3 12:46 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PIT PIT: Punt
4 Q4 12:59 C. Boswell missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 72 of 87 from 45+ before +9% CLE PIT: Punt
5 Q4 9:55 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +10% CLE PIT: Punt
6 Q4 2:02 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% CLE PIT: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:29 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:21 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Myles Harden (CLE CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • James Pierre (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brandin Echols (PIT CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 38% · Browns 62%

Final margin
Browns by 7
Luck in points
4.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 48% · Browns 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Steelers · Browns

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