luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Jaguars at Colts, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 23–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jaguars win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 6:51 left): Offensive Holding on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Jaguars. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throw.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Indianapolis Colts 17

December 28, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +59 Jaguars lucky · −59 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 36 IND 17
  2. 2 JAX 16 IND 6
  3. 3 JAX 20 IND 14
  4. 4 JAX 22 IND 20
  5. 5 JAX 17 IND 19
  6. 6 JAX 21 IND 27
  7. 7 JAX 17 IND 26
  8. 8 JAX 21 IND 33
  9. 9 JAX 6 IND 22
  10. 10 JAX 9 IND 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 41% of them, Colts 59%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+6.6%
Jaguars by 9–1612.8%
Jaguars by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation3.5%
Colts by 1–828.1%
Colts by 9–1616.7%
Colts by 17+13.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 6, without the luck Colts by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Little, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Little, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Little, 53 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 55 yards, Colts 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 10 yards +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q1 4:02 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Matt Dickerson), 5 yards 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q2 3:58 Face Mask on the Colts (Nick Cross), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 3:58 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.4 pts
Q3 10:19 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Philip Rivers), 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% JAX +3.6 pts
Q3 6:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Eric Murray), 26 yards +11% IND +1.6 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Colts (Josh Downs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 2:15 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 2:11 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 0:13 Defensive Delay of Game on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:19 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Colts (Philip Rivers), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2268 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +12% JAX IND: Punt
2 Q3 8:03 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +15% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 7:08 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:51 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +18% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 6:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Eric Murray), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 4706 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +11% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:59 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:54 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +15% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:04 The Colts were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +48% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (IND QB), out (IR), replaced by p.rivers · 1.5 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tanor Bortolini (IND C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hainsey (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 50% · Colts 50%

Final margin
Jaguars by 6
Luck in points
9.1 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 41% · Colts 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Jaguars · Colts

More from Week 17 2025