luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · December 25, 2025–December 29

Week 17 2025: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Bills 13–12 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 27–24 vs Rams 29% 36% Lucky
Vikings 23–10 vs Lions 30% 51% Coin flip
Dolphins 20–17 vs Buccaneers 34% 48% Coin flip
Browns 13–6 vs Steelers 37% 52% Coin flip
Eagles 13–12 @ Bills 41% 16% Lucky
Ravens 41–24 @ Packers 43% 33% Lucky
Texans 20–16 @ Chargers 46% 65% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 13–12 @ Bills 16% +84
2 Cowboys W 30–23 @ Commanders 30% +70
3 Ravens W 41–24 @ Packers 33% +67
4 Falcons W 27–24 vs Rams 36% +64
5 Jaguars W 23–17 @ Colts 41% +59
6 Dolphins W 20–17 vs Buccaneers 48% +52
7 Vikings W 23–10 vs Lions 51% +49
8 Browns W 13–6 vs Steelers 52% +48
9 Seahawks W 27–10 @ Panthers 64% +36
10 Texans W 20–16 @ Chargers 65% +36
11 Broncos W 20–13 @ Chiefs 74% +26
12 49ers W 42–38 vs Bears 86% +14
13 Giants W 34–10 @ Raiders 90% +10
14 Saints W 34–26 @ Titans 95% +6
15 Bengals W 37–14 vs Cardinals 96% +4
16 Patriots W 42–10 @ Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 10–42 vs Patriots 0% 0
18 Cardinals L 14–37 @ Bengals 4% −4
19 Titans L 26–34 vs Saints 6% −6
20 Raiders L 10–34 vs Giants 10% −10
21 Bears L 38–42 @ 49ers 14% −14
22 Chiefs L 13–20 vs Broncos 26% −26
23 Chargers L 16–20 vs Texans 36% −36
24 Panthers L 10–27 vs Seahawks 36% −36
25 Steelers L 6–13 @ Browns 48% −48
26 Lions L 10–23 @ Vikings 49% −49
27 Buccaneers L 17–20 @ Dolphins 52% −52
28 Colts L 17–23 vs Jaguars 59% −59
29 Rams L 24–27 @ Falcons 64% −64
30 Packers L 24–41 vs Ravens 67% −67
31 Commanders L 23–30 vs Cowboys 70% −70
32 Bills L 12–13 vs Eagles 84% −84