luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Baltimore Ravens, 2025: game by game

The Ravens went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.1 wins. Luck cost them 2.1: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Bills L 40–41 35% −35
Week 2 vs Browns W 41–17 86% +14
Week 3 vs Lions L 30–38 37% −37
Week 4 @ Chiefs L 20–37 63% −63
Week 5 vs Texans L 10–44 35% −35
Week 6 vs Rams L 3–17 29% −29
Week 8 vs Bears W 30–16 49% +51
Week 9 @ Dolphins W 28–6 90% +10
Week 10 @ Vikings W 27–19 83% +17
Week 11 @ Browns W 23–16 99% +1
Week 12 vs Jets W 23–10 80% +20
Week 13 vs Bengals L 14–32 52% −52
Week 14 vs Steelers L 22–27 62% −62
Week 15 @ Bengals W 24–0 83% +17
Week 16 vs Patriots L 24–28 33% −33
Week 17 @ Packers W 41–24 33% +67
Week 18 @ Steelers L 24–26 60% −60

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.27+3.8
3rd & 4th downs+0.13+4.7
Rest+0.04+1.2
Fumble bounces−0.20−4.7
Drops−0.28−9.0
Injuries−0.71−24.8
Kicks−1.12−6.7