luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Steelers at Ravens, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 27–22, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 28 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Baltimore Ravens 22

December 7, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +62 Steelers very lucky · −62 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Ravens win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 41 BAL 24
  2. 2 PIT 33 BAL 24
  3. 3 PIT 19 BAL 14
  4. 4 PIT 33 BAL 31
  5. 5 PIT 21 BAL 23
  6. 6 PIT 26 BAL 30
  7. 7 PIT 13 BAL 20
  8. 8 PIT 6 BAL 17
  9. 9 PIT 10 BAL 25
  10. 10 PIT 14 BAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 38% of them, Ravens 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+4.5%
Steelers by 9–1612.0%
Steelers by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation3.5%
Ravens by 1–830.2%
Ravens by 9–1616.4%
Ravens by 17+13.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 5, without the luck Steelers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Boswell, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 100% expected
  • T. Loop, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Loop, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 7 for 33 yards, Ravens 5 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 3 yards +1% BAL +0.2 pts
Q2 14:19 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 13:15 Face Mask on the Ravens (Alohi Gilman), 12 yards +2% PIT +1.5 pts
Q2 6:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 7 yards +4% PIT +2.2 pts
Q2 6:05 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Steelers (Chris Boswell), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q2 2:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q3 6:55 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +5% BAL +1.5 pts
Q4 12:08 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 2:08 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Keondre Jackson), 10 yards +11% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 1:56 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% PIT +0.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:31 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% PIT BAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 3:38 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +14% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q4 13:51 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedR. Bateman dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 135 catchable balls before this +12% PIT BAL: Field goal
4 Q4 4:24 The Ravens converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +12% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 3:36 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +24% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:32 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +13% PIT BAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:28 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +22% PIT BAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:09 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +28% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kyle Dugger (PIT S), out · 0.5 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derrick Harmon (PIT DT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 35% · Ravens 65%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
4.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 38% · Ravens 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Steelers · Ravens

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