luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Seahawks at Falcons, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Falcons 37–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 24 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 37
Atlanta Falcons 9

December 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −7

Luck index +21 Seahawks about even · −21 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Falcons win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 55 ATL 25
  2. 2 SEA 34 ATL 13
  3. 3 SEA 35 ATL 19
  4. 4 SEA 30 ATL 16
  5. 5 SEA 37 ATL 26
  6. 6 SEA 24 ATL 16
  7. 7 SEA 28 ATL 23
  8. 8 SEA 38 ATL 36
  9. 9 SEA 6 ATL 9
  10. 10 SEA 17 ATL 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 79% of them, Falcons 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+32.5%
Seahawks by 9–1620.6%
Seahawks by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Falcons by 1–812.6%
Falcons by 9–165.7%
Falcons by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 28, without the luck Seahawks by 22.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 50 yds blocked · 75% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Myers, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Myers, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 60 yards, Falcons 8 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:17 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.4 pts
Q1 5:40 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Leonard Floyd), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q1 2:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (David Onyemata), 6 yards · pre-snap +6% SEA +2.3 pts
Q1 2:35 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Ruke Orhorhoro), 5 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 2:08 False Start on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Robbie Ouzts), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% ATL +1.9 pts
Q2 9:29 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Deven Thompkins), 10 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 3:44 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (David Sills V), 10 yards +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 14:57 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Falcons (Zane Gonzalez), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q4 7:56 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Mike Morris), 15 yards 0% ATL +1.3 pts
Q4 7:02 Taunting on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards 0% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 10 yards 0% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 5:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (LaCale London), 15 yards 0% SEA +1.8 pts
Q4 4:05 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ATL +2.3 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:23 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 2:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (David Onyemata), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 4470 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 13:45 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% ATL ATL: Punt
4 Q2 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Robbie Ouzts), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 178 snaps before, position avg 1 per 450 +6% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
5 Q2 9:40 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% ATL SEA: Punt
6 Q3 15:00 Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +24% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:26 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% SEA ATL: Turnover
8 Q3 5:01 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Falcons were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% SEA ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brandon Dorlus (ATL DL), out · 0.1 pts
  • Jalen Sundell (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 28
Luck in points
5.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 22.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 79% · Falcons 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Seahawks · Falcons

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