luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 4, 2025

Cowboys at Lions, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Cowboys 44–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:27 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 30
Detroit Lions 44

December 4, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index +35 Lions lucky · −35 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 4, Lions win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 48 DET 24
  2. 2 DAL 41 DET 27
  3. 3 DAL 23 DET 16
  4. 4 DAL 31 DET 28
  5. 5 DAL 28 DET 30
  6. 6 DAL 23 DET 27
  7. 7 DAL 10 DET 17
  8. 8 DAL 20 DET 31
  9. 9 DAL 14 DET 31
  10. 10 DAL 13 DET 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 35% of them, Lions 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+6.7%
Cowboys by 9–169.8%
Cowboys by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.4%
Lions by 1–822.9%
Lions by 9–1619.1%
Lions by 17+22.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Lions by 14, without the luck Lions by 20.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 57 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 55 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Bates, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Bates, 52 yds blocked · 72% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 63 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Bates, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 29 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 7 for 76 yards, Lions 8 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:19 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Trikweze Bridges), 4 yards +1% DET +0.4 pts
Q1 4:18 Illegal Shift on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 9:12 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 6:15 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +2% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 5:54 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 4:27 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Shemar James), 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 1:25 Face Mask on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% DET +1.3 pts
Q2 0:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Shavon Revel), 14 yards +2% DET +1.0 pts
Q3 12:52 Defensive Holding on the Lions (D.J. Reed), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q3 4:10 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q3 3:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DET +2.1 pts
Q3 1:22 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 13:56 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +1% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 8:26 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (James Houston), 13 yards +5% DET +1.3 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:13 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% DET DET: Field goal
2 Q1 11:30 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% DAL DET: Field goal
3 Q2 14:22 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 7:43 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DAL DAL: Turnover
5 Q2 6:28 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DET DAL: Field goal
6 Q2 1:25 Face Mask on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3375 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +5% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q3 3:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3375 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +8% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 4:18 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brock Wright (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayode Awosika (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Juanyeh Thomas (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 1% · Lions 99%

Final margin
Lions by 14
Luck in points
6.2 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 20.2
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 35% · Lions 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Cowboys · Lions

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