luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · December 4, 2025–December 8

Week 14 2025: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Chiefs 20–10 in a game they win 11% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Saints 24–20 @ Buccaneers 29% 51% Coin flip
Steelers 27–22 @ Ravens 34% 38% Lucky
Titans 31–29 @ Browns 37% 34% Lucky
Texans 20–10 @ Chiefs 37% 11% Lucky
Jaguars 36–19 vs Colts 43% 62% Deserved
Vikings 31–0 vs Commanders 46% 68% Deserved
Chargers 22–19 vs Eagles 46% 51% Coin flip

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 20–10 @ Chiefs 11% +89
2 Titans W 31–29 @ Browns 34% +66
3 Steelers W 27–22 @ Ravens 38% +62
4 Chargers W 22–19 vs Eagles 51% +49
5 Saints W 24–20 @ Buccaneers 51% +49
6 Bills W 39–34 vs Bengals 58% +42
7 Jaguars W 36–19 vs Colts 62% +38
8 Lions W 44–30 vs Cowboys 65% +35
9 Vikings W 31–0 vs Commanders 68% +32
10 Broncos W 24–17 @ Raiders 72% +28
11 Packers W 28–21 vs Bears 78% +22
12 Seahawks W 37–9 @ Falcons 79% +21
13 Dolphins W 34–10 @ Jets 97% +3
14 Rams W 45–17 @ Cardinals 99% +1
15 Cardinals L 17–45 vs Rams 1% −1
16 Jets L 10–34 vs Dolphins 3% −3
17 Falcons L 9–37 vs Seahawks 21% −21
18 Bears L 21–28 @ Packers 22% −22
19 Raiders L 17–24 vs Broncos 28% −28
20 Commanders L 0–31 @ Vikings 32% −32
21 Cowboys L 30–44 @ Lions 35% −35
22 Colts L 19–36 @ Jaguars 38% −38
23 Bengals L 34–39 @ Bills 42% −42
24 Buccaneers L 20–24 vs Saints 49% −49
25 Eagles L 19–22 @ Chargers 49% −49
26 Ravens L 22–27 vs Steelers 62% −62
27 Browns L 29–31 vs Titans 66% −66
28 Chiefs L 10–20 vs Texans 89% −89