luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Rams at Cardinals, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Cardinals 45–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:19 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 8 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 45
Arizona Cardinals 17

December 7, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Rams −9.5

Luck index +1 Rams about even · −1 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Cardinals win 0.

  1. 1 LA 41 ARI 0
  2. 2 LA 48 ARI 13
  3. 3 LA 41 ARI 12
  4. 4 LA 54 ARI 29
  5. 5 LA 49 ARI 26
  6. 6 LA 44 ARI 24
  7. 7 LA 30 ARI 14
  8. 8 LA 33 ARI 20
  9. 9 LA 33 ARI 24
  10. 10 LA 35 ARI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 99% of them, Cardinals 1%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+89.8%
Rams by 9–167.1%
Rams by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Cardinals by 1–80.8%
Cardinals by 9–160.2%
Cardinals by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 28, without the luck Rams by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Ryland, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Ryland, 63 yds missed · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 5 for 30 yards, Cardinals 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:13 False Start on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q1 0:45 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +4% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 7:46 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Terrance Ferguson), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.0 pts
Q2 0:49 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 12:28 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Will Johnson), 5 yards 0% LA +0.7 pts
Q3 10:25 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Jordan Burch), 7 yards 0% LA +1.1 pts
Q3 4:23 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 10 yards 0% LA +1.0 pts
Q3 3:32 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 1:43 False Start on the Rams (Terrance Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 11:08 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LA 0.0 pts
Q4 10:20 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 10:20 Illegal Shift on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:12 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% LA ARI: Punt
2 Q1 0:45 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q2 11:29 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q2 9:19 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% LA ARI: Field goal
6 Q2 8:39 C. Ryland made 38-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +5% ARI ARI: Punt
7 Q2 7:46 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Terrance Ferguson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 203 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +3% ARI ARI: Punt
8 Q2 0:01 C. Ryland missed 63-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 17 of 29 from 45+ before +3% LA ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Rams by 28
Luck in points
9.1 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 18.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 99% · Cardinals 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Rams · Cardinals

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