luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Bengals at Bills, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Bengals 39–34, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:35 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 65 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Buffalo Bills 39

December 7, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6

Luck index +42 Bills lucky · −42 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Bills win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 24 BUF 7
  2. 2 CIN 44 BUF 34
  3. 3 CIN 31 BUF 26
  4. 4 CIN 33 BUF 31
  5. 5 CIN 19 BUF 21
  6. 6 CIN 27 BUF 31
  7. 7 CIN 17 BUF 24
  8. 8 CIN 14 BUF 24
  9. 9 CIN 6 BUF 20
  10. 10 CIN 24 BUF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 42% of them, Bills 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+6.7%
Bengals by 9–1612.2%
Bengals by 1–820.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Bills by 1–830.0%
Bills by 9–1615.9%
Bills by 17+11.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bills by 5, without the luck Bills by 13.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 30 yards, Bills 6 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:36 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 1 yard 0% BUF +0.1 pts
Q2 3:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 33 yards +8% CIN +3.3 pts
Q2 1:21 False Start on the Bills (James Cook), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 1:11 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Cameron Lewis), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.3 pts
Q3 14:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 19 yards +4% BUF +2.9 pts
Q3 8:20 False Start on the Bengals (Joe Giles-Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 3:57 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 2:59 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 5 yards +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q3 0:46 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 5:11 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +2.0 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:23 The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:36 The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 1 yardJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1930 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +14% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 6184 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:40 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% BUF BUF: Turnover
5 Q3 0:52 The Bills fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% CIN BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:35 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +65% BUF CIN: Turnover
7 Q4 5:19 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% BUF CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:09 The Bills converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Joey Bosa (BUF DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Palmer (BUF WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 6% · Bills 94%

Final margin
Bills by 5
Luck in points
8.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 42% · Bills 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Bengals · Bills

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