luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2025: game by game

The Bengals went 6–11 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Browns W 17–16 58% +42
Week 2 vs Jaguars W 31–27 69% +31
Week 3 @ Vikings L 10–48 2% −2
Week 4 @ Broncos L 3–28 10% −10
Week 5 vs Lions L 24–37 4% −4
Week 6 @ Packers L 18–27 3% −3
Week 7 vs Steelers W 33–31 36% +64
Week 8 vs Jets L 38–39 44% −44
Week 9 vs Bears L 42–47 49% −49
Week 11 @ Steelers L 12–34 25% −25
Week 12 vs Patriots L 20–26 18% −18
Week 13 @ Ravens W 32–14 48% +52
Week 14 @ Bills L 34–39 42% −42
Week 15 vs Ravens L 0–24 17% −17
Week 16 @ Dolphins W 45–21 91% +9
Week 17 vs Cardinals W 37–14 96% +4
Week 18 vs Browns L 18–20 98% −98

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+1.04+32.3
Kicks+0.07+3.9
Fumble bounces+0.03+1.6
Rest+0.03+0.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.26+0.9
Injuries−0.43−20.2