luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 16, 2025

Steelers at Bengals, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 33–31, but the Steelers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:11 left): E. McPherson made 36-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 31
Cincinnati Bengals 33

October 16, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +64 Bengals very lucky · −64 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Bengals win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 28 CIN 7
  2. 2 PIT 26 CIN 10
  3. 3 PIT 38 CIN 27
  4. 4 PIT 34 CIN 27
  5. 5 PIT 33 CIN 29
  6. 6 PIT 19 CIN 17
  7. 7 PIT 19 CIN 21
  8. 8 PIT 23 CIN 29
  9. 9 PIT 23 CIN 33
  10. 10 PIT 10 CIN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 64% of them, Bengals 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+16.3%
Steelers by 9–1620.0%
Steelers by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Bengals by 1–818.9%
Bengals by 9–169.9%
Bengals by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Bengals by 2, without the luck Bengals by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. McPherson, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • E. McPherson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • E. McPherson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 7 for 59 yards, Bengals 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:08 False Start on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.6 pts
Q1 5:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 14 yards +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q1 3:07 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.8 pts
Q1 2:52 Fair Catch Interference on the Bengals (PJ Jules), 15 yards +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q2 12:19 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CIN +3.6 pts
Q2 10:39 False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 6:51 False Start on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 3:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Jalen Ramsey), 4 yards +2% CIN +0.2 pts
Q2 0:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 12 yards +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 7:29 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +5% PIT +1.7 pts
Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% CIN +1.8 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +15% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:19 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:19 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:43 The Steelers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% CIN PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:59 The Steelers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:29 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:11 E. McPherson made 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +17% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 5.6 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Gesicki (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Calvin Austin III (PIT WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 55% · Bengals 45%

Final margin
Bengals by 2
Luck in points
4.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 64% · Bengals 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Steelers · Bengals

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