luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Dolphins at Browns, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Dolphins 31–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:34 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 14 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Miami Dolphins 6
Cleveland Browns 31

October 19, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +24 Browns about even · −24 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 29 CLE 17
  2. 2 MIA 16 CLE 13
  3. 3 MIA 14 CLE 17
  4. 4 MIA 8 CLE 13
  5. 5 MIA 7 CLE 14
  6. 6 MIA 3 CLE 13
  7. 7 MIA 10 CLE 23
  8. 8 MIA 0 CLE 15
  9. 9 MIA 10 CLE 29
  10. 10 MIA 3 CLE 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 24% of them, Browns 76%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+2.3%
Dolphins by 9–166.5%
Dolphins by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation2.8%
Browns by 1–825.8%
Browns by 9–1623.1%
Browns by 17+26.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 25, without the luck Browns by 22.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 11 for 103 yards, Browns 5 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:47 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julius Brents), 10 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q1 7:39 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q1 7:22 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +7% CLE +1.8 pts
Q1 5:12 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 11:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 14 yards, wiping out the play +18% CLE +4.7 pts
Q2 9:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.3 pts
Q2 5:58 False Start on the Dolphins (Darren Waller), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 5:07 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Myles Harden), 5 yards +4% MIA +1.7 pts
Q2 2:53 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 1:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 12 yards +5% MIA +2.6 pts
Q3 14:48 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Ifeatu Melifonwu), 10 yards +1% CLE +1.1 pts
Q3 12:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (D'Wayne Eskridge), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +1.6 pts
Q4 11:50 False Start on the Dolphins (De'Von Achane), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 8:24 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q4 0:55 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:25 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 7:22 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Rasul Douglas), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 37 flags in 6154 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q1 5:12 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 4985 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +5% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q1 2:24 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% MIA CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 11:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 6889 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +18% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:54 The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2406 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:56 The Dolphins were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +12% CLE MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Storm Duck (MIA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Browns 100%

Final margin
Browns by 25
Luck in points
2.5 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 22.5
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 24% · Browns 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Dolphins · Browns

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