luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Commanders at Cowboys, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Commanders 44–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:15 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 37 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Washington Commanders 22
Dallas Cowboys 44

October 19, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +40 Cowboys lucky · −40 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 40 DAL 23
  2. 2 WAS 35 DAL 24
  3. 3 WAS 37 DAL 30
  4. 4 WAS 23 DAL 21
  5. 5 WAS 23 DAL 25
  6. 6 WAS 26 DAL 30
  7. 7 WAS 30 DAL 37
  8. 8 WAS 27 DAL 38
  9. 9 WAS 27 DAL 43
  10. 10 WAS 20 DAL 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 40% of them, Cowboys 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+8.6%
Commanders by 9–1612.5%
Commanders by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Cowboys by 1–823.6%
Cowboys by 9–1616.0%
Cowboys by 17+18.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.4 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 22, without the luck Cowboys by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 47 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 61 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 29 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 11 for 118 yards, Cowboys 10 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 37 yards +11% DAL +2.2 pts
Q1 11:46 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q1 7:38 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Matt Gay), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q1 6:14 Tripping on the Commanders (Colson Yankoff), 13 yards +3% DAL +1.2 pts
Q1 0:46 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Jacob Martin), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% DAL +4.0 pts
Q1 0:32 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys (Jaydon Blue), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 10:56 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% WAS +2.0 pts
Q2 7:22 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Tyler Owens), 10 yards +2% DAL +1.0 pts
Q2 6:47 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 5:40 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 1:35 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 1:29 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Kenneth Murray), 5 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 7:44 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q3 6:11 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +1.3 pts
Q3 3:34 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 3:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Kaiir Elam), 14 yards 0% WAS +2.6 pts
Q3 1:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 18 yards 0% DAL +1.7 pts
Q4 9:02 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 10 yards 0% WAS +0.8 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 37 flags in 4995 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:44 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:38 The Commanders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedKickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Matt Gay), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 935 snaps before, position avg 1 per 264 +4% DAL WAS: Punt
4 Q1 6:25 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% WAS DAL: Field goal
5 Q1 4:12 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% WAS WAS: Punt
6 Q1 0:46 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Jacob Martin), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3063 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +7% DAL DAL: Punt
7 Q2 12:48 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 5:46 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +10% DAL WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Brandon Coleman (WAS T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 16% · Cowboys 84%

Final margin
Cowboys by 22
Luck in points
14.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 40% · Cowboys 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Commanders · Cowboys

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