luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Falcons at 49ers, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Falcons 20–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:27 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 13, worth 10 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 10
San Francisco 49ers 20

October 19, 2025 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −1.5

Luck index +26 49ers lucky · −26 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, 49ers win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 14 SF 0
  2. 2 ATL 17 SF 10
  3. 3 ATL 30 SF 27
  4. 4 ATL 14 SF 16
  5. 5 ATL 24 SF 28
  6. 6 ATL 20 SF 27
  7. 7 ATL 13 SF 23
  8. 8 ATL 17 SF 30
  9. 9 ATL 3 SF 20
  10. 10 ATL 0 SF 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 26% of them, 49ers 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+2.2%
Falcons by 9–166.2%
Falcons by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation4.4%
49ers by 1–828.4%
49ers by 9–1622.5%
49ers by 17+21.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 10, without the luck 49ers by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 43 yards, 49ers 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% SF +3.6 pts
Q1 2:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards +1% SF +0.7 pts
Q1 1:22 Illegal Contact on the 49ers (Marques Sigle), 5 yards +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 15 yards +6% ATL +1.3 pts
Q2 0:17 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 13 yards +3% SF +1.4 pts
Q3 4:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards +3% SF +0.7 pts
Q3 1:11 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SF +0.7 pts
Q4 4:05 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.4 pts
Q4 1:56 Illegal Contact on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.3 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% SF SF: Turnover
2 Q2 2:00 The 49ers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:32 The Falcons fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% SF ATL: End of half
4 Q3 3:27 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q3 1:11 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% SF ATL: Punt
6 Q4 9:02 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% SF ATL: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 8:20 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% SF ATL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:46 The 49ers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 7.4 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Upton Stout (SF CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Taylor (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 50% · 49ers 50%

Final margin
49ers by 10
Luck in points
0.3 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 26% · 49ers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Falcons · 49ers

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