luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 20, 2025

Buccaneers at Lions, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Buccaneers 24–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:49 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
Detroit Lions 24

October 20, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −6

Luck index +33 Lions lucky · −33 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Lions win 7.

  1. 1 TB 33 DET 15
  2. 2 TB 49 DET 40
  3. 3 TB 27 DET 24
  4. 4 TB 10 DET 12
  5. 5 TB 12 DET 17
  6. 6 TB 20 DET 28
  7. 7 TB 23 DET 33
  8. 8 TB 13 DET 27
  9. 9 TB 17 DET 36
  10. 10 TB 20 DET 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 33% of them, Lions 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.5%
Buccaneers by 9–169.9%
Buccaneers by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation2.6%
Lions by 1–823.1%
Lions by 9–1619.8%
Lions by 17+21.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Lions by 15, without the luck Lions by 24.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Bates, 58 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 6 for 35 yards, Lions 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:54 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Jacob Parrish), 5 yards +4% DET +1.6 pts
Q1 11:59 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Kaevon Merriweather), 10 yards +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q1 7:42 False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 23 yards +5% TB +1.5 pts
Q2 11:56 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q2 7:35 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions (Kalif Raymond), 6 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 7:35 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 6:07 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards +2% DET +1.5 pts
Q2 3:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jameson Williams), 8 yards, wiping out the play +4% TB +1.7 pts
Q3 11:28 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 2:59 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 5 yards 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q4 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Arthur Maulet), 3 yards +3% TB +2.8 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:49 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% TB DET: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 0:46 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% TB DET: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 3764 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% TB TB: Punt
4 Q2 10:56 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% TB DET: Punt
5 Q2 1:56 J. Bates missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 12 of 17 from 45+ before +5% TB DET: Turnover
6 Q2 1:52 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% DET TB: Field goal
7 Q3 10:21 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:26 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kerby Joseph (DET FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (TB CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 15
Luck in points
9.9 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 24.9
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 33% · Lions 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Buccaneers · Lions

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