luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2025: game by game

The Lions went 9–8 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Packers L 13–27 25% −25
Week 2 vs Bears W 52–21 100% 0
Week 3 @ Ravens W 38–30 63% +37
Week 4 vs Browns W 34–10 96% +4
Week 5 @ Bengals W 37–24 96% +4
Week 6 @ Chiefs L 17–30 36% −36
Week 7 vs Buccaneers W 24–9 67% +33
Week 9 vs Vikings L 24–27 24% −24
Week 10 @ Commanders W 44–22 82% +18
Week 11 @ Eagles L 9–16 88% −88
Week 12 vs Giants W 34–27 75% +25
Week 13 vs Packers L 24–31 45% −45
Week 14 vs Cowboys W 44–30 65% +35
Week 15 @ Rams L 34–41 16% −16
Week 16 vs Steelers L 24–29 38% −38
Week 17 @ Vikings L 10–23 49% −49
Week 18 @ Bears W 19–16 82% +18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Drops+0.10−0.9
Rest+0.07+2.6
Injuries−0.10−1.2
3rd & 4th downs−0.18−8.3
Fumble bounces−0.50−22.0
Kicks−0.54−17.3
Judgment calls−2.52−32.6