luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 27, 2025

Packers at Lions, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Lions 31–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:55 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 15 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Detroit Lions 24

November 27, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +45 Packers lucky · −45 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Lions win 5.

  1. 1 GB 38 DET 16
  2. 2 GB 24 DET 10
  3. 3 GB 26 DET 17
  4. 4 GB 30 DET 24
  5. 5 GB 20 DET 17
  6. 6 GB 17 DET 20
  7. 7 GB 20 DET 24
  8. 8 GB 24 DET 31
  9. 9 GB 10 DET 22
  10. 10 GB 10 DET 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 55% of them, Lions 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+10.4%
Packers by 9–1614.4%
Packers by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation7.1%
Lions by 1–823.1%
Lions by 9–1612.6%
Lions by 17+8.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 7, without the luck Packers by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Bates, 31 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 3 for 20 yards, Lions 5 for 22 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kitan Oladapo), 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 5:16 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q1 0:25 Defensive Offside on the Lions (D.J. Reader), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +1.9 pts
Q2 9:47 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 3:01 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 2:42 Face Mask on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 3 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 7:15 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +2.2 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:33 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:25 The Packers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +15% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:28 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:16 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:31 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:23 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:55 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedJ. Williams dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 153 catchable balls before this +15% GB DET: Field goal
8 Q4 3:26 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% GB DET: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.7 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DET OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brock Wright (DET TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Giovanni Manu (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matthew Golden (GB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Karl Brooks (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 68% · Lions 32%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
4.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 55% · Lions 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Packers · Lions

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