Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025
Rams at Panthers, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers stole one. They beat the Rams 31–28, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Before kickoff the Rams were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:34 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 38 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 28 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Panthers very lucky · −87 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 9, Panthers win 1.
- 1 LA 37 CAR 7
- 2 LA 30 CAR 7
- 3 LA 34 CAR 17
- 4 LA 24 CAR 10
- 5 LA 22 CAR 10
- 6 LA 23 CAR 14
- 7 LA 28 CAR 21
- 8 LA 12 CAR 7
- 9 LA 24 CAR 22
- 10 LA 20 CAR 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 87% of them, Panthers 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 35.6% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 25.6% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 25.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Rams 1 for 5 yards, Panthers 7 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Thomas Incoom), 15 yards | +4% LA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:10 | Illegal Formation on the Panthers (Robert Rochell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:07 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Mitchell Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 5:02 | Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Tershawn Wharton), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:12 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Thomas Incoom), 10 yards | +4% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ja'Tavion Sanders), 10 yards | +4% LA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yards | +8% LA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAR +0.6 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:46 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +15% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:07 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Rams were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +29% CAR | LA: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:20 | The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams | +24% CAR | LA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:54 | The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +22% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 6:43 | The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +34% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:06 | P. Nacua dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 313 catchable balls before this | +9% CAR | LA: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 4:09 | The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +11% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 2:34 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +38% CAR | LA: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Tre'von Moehrig (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Cade Mays (CAR C), out · 0.3 pts
- Christian Rozeboom (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 8% · Panthers 92%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 8.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 87% · Panthers 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Rams · 
Panthers
More from Week 13 2025
- Packers at Lions GB 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Cowboys DAL 31–28 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens CIN 32–14 · replay 48% for the winner
- Bears at Eagles CHI 24–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Cardinals at Buccaneers TB 20–17 · replay 7% for the winner
- Falcons at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 11% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 20–16 · replay 36% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 25–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Saints at Dolphins MIA 21–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- 49ers at Browns SF 26–8 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 26–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 26–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 31–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Commanders DEN 27–26 · replay 49% for the winner
- Giants at Patriots NE 33–15 · replay 85% for the winner