luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Vikings at Seahawks, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Vikings 26–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:14 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 62 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 0
Seattle Seahawks 26

November 30, 2025 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −12.5

Luck index +3 Seahawks about even · −3 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Seahawks win 10.

  1. 1 MIN 21 SEA 23
  2. 2 MIN 21 SEA 27
  3. 3 MIN 3 SEA 12
  4. 4 MIN 16 SEA 27
  5. 5 MIN 6 SEA 20
  6. 6 MIN 17 SEA 34
  7. 7 MIN 10 SEA 29
  8. 8 MIN 3 SEA 26
  9. 9 MIN 7 SEA 33
  10. 10 MIN 6 SEA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 3% of them, Seahawks 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.1%
Vikings by 9–160.5%
Vikings by 1–82.0%
Level after regulation0.6%
Seahawks by 1–86.9%
Seahawks by 9–1617.5%
Seahawks by 17+72.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 26, without the luck Seahawks by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Myers, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Myers, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 10 for 80 yards, Seahawks 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:30 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 5 yards +5% MIN +1.6 pts
Q1 10:03 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Andrew Van Ginkel), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 2:36 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Bo Richter), 10 yards +2% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 2:19 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q3 12:49 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 11:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 8:41 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks (Cooper Kupp), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% MIN +1.9 pts
Q3 5:51 Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards 0% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 5:47 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q3 1:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Nick Emmanwori), 15 yards 0% MIN +1.8 pts
Q4 9:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 15 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 9:11 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Seahawks (Jason Myers), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q4 6:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards 0% SEA +1.4 pts
Q4 5:33 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% SEA +1.6 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:30 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 1973 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q1 12:00 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% SEA MIN: Punt
3 Q2 14:18 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q2 13:24 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q2 6:20 J. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 15 drops on 415 catchable balls before this +6% SEA MIN: Punt
6 Q2 5:26 The Seahawks fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% MIN SEA: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 3:14 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +62% SEA MIN: Punt
8 Q2 2:11 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIN MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Sundell (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by m.brosmer · 2.6 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Donovan Jackson (MIN OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Theo Jackson (MIN S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Seahawks 100%

Final margin
Seahawks by 26
Luck in points
9.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 3% · Seahawks 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Vikings · Seahawks

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