luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Jaguars at Titans, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 25–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Tennessee Titans 3

November 30, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −6

Luck index +2 Jaguars about even · −2 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 JAX 39 TEN 7
  2. 2 JAX 27 TEN 0
  3. 3 JAX 30 TEN 6
  4. 4 JAX 31 TEN 10
  5. 5 JAX 23 TEN 6
  6. 6 JAX 16 TEN 0
  7. 7 JAX 23 TEN 10
  8. 8 JAX 20 TEN 10
  9. 9 JAX 14 TEN 7
  10. 10 JAX 3 TEN 0

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+71.8%
Jaguars by 9–1618.5%
Jaguars by 1–87.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Titans by 1–81.7%
Titans by 9–160.4%
Titans by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 22, without the luck Jaguars by 18.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 45 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 13 for 98 yards, Titans 10 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 5:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Tim Patrick), 10 yards +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 14:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.1 pts
Q2 14:54 Encroachment on the Titans (Arden Key), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% TEN 0.0 pts
Q2 14:54 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Jaguars (Cam Little), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q2 12:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 10 yards +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 11:04 False Start on the Jaguars (Branson Combs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 9:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% TEN +0.2 pts
Q2 5:53 False Start on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 5:19 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 2:46 False Start on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.1 pts
Q2 0:35 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 0:01 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Arden Key), 15 yards +1% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans (James Williams), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 12:34 Roughing the Kicker on the Titans (Mike Brown), 15 yards +4% JAX +4.6 pts
Q3 11:42 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q3 10:23 Encroachment on the Titans (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 5:58 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jourdan Lewis), 6 yards 0% TEN +1.7 pts
Q3 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% JAX +1.6 pts
Q3 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 17 yards 0% TEN +1.3 pts
Q4 11:49 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (B.J. Green), 10 yards 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 11:02 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% TEN +1.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:09 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:04 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% JAX TEN: Punt
4 Q2 14:54 The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 25 flags in 5564 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323Encroachment on the Titans (Arden Key), 1 yardPre-snap flags · 22 flags in 3763 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Jaguars (Cam Little), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 242 snaps before, position avg 1 per 264 +4% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q2 14:15 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q2 1:14 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 0:25 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedT. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 192 catchable balls before this +12% JAX TEN: Punt
8 Q3 12:34 Roughing the Kicker on the Titans (Mike Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1209 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +4% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalyn Armour-Davis (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Arik Armstead (JAX DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 99% · Titans 1%

Final margin
Jaguars by 22
Luck in points
3.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Jaguars · Titans

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