luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Raiders at Chargers, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 31–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:13 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 2, worth 18 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 14
Los Angeles Chargers 31

November 30, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −10

Luck index +10 Chargers about even · −10 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 LV 14 LAC 10
  2. 2 LV 18 LAC 20
  3. 3 LV 14 LAC 19
  4. 4 LV 21 LAC 29
  5. 5 LV 19 LAC 29
  6. 6 LV 10 LAC 23
  7. 7 LV 9 LAC 24
  8. 8 LV 8 LAC 26
  9. 9 LV 10 LAC 33
  10. 10 LV 12 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 10% of them, Chargers 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.3%
Raiders by 9–161.8%
Raiders by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Chargers by 1–820.7%
Chargers by 9–1625.4%
Chargers by 17+43.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 17, without the luck Chargers by 11.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Raiders 4 for 50 yards, Chargers 4 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q1 0:23 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +1.1 pts
Q2 13:40 Face Mask on the Raiders (Devin White), 15 yards +5% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 11:55 False Start on the Chargers, 6 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 11:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Devin White), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 2:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Elijah Molden), 13 yards +4% LV +2.2 pts
Q4 8:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Derwin James), 3 yards +1% LV +1.0 pts
Q4 4:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +1% LAC +1.2 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:40 Face Mask on the Raiders (Devin White), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 6476 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% LAC LAC: Turnover
2 Q2 8:39 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% LV LAC: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 7:54 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% LAC LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:37 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% LV LAC: Punt
5 Q2 1:19 O. Gadsden dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 39 catchable balls before this +6% LV LAC: Punt
6 Q3 14:13 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +18% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:44 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% LAC LV: Punt
8 Q3 8:18 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% LAC LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 1% · Chargers 99%

Final margin
Chargers by 17
Luck in points
5.6 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 10% · Chargers 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Raiders · Chargers

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