luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · November 27, 2025–December 1

Week 13 2025: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Buccaneers beat the Cardinals 20–17 in a game they win 7% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 31–28 vs Rams 23% 13% Lucky
Bengals 32–14 @ Ravens 30% 48% Coin flip
Bears 24–15 @ Eagles 30% 87% Deserved
Cowboys 31–28 vs Chiefs 40% 61% Deserved
Jets 27–24 vs Falcons 41% 11% Lucky
Texans 20–16 @ Colts 41% 36% Lucky
Packers 31–24 @ Lions 43% 55% Coin flip

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Buccaneers W 20–17 vs Cardinals 7% +93
2 Jets W 27–24 vs Falcons 11% +89
3 Panthers W 31–28 vs Rams 13% +87
4 Texans W 20–16 @ Colts 36% +64
5 Bengals W 32–14 @ Ravens 48% +52
6 Broncos W 27–26 @ Commanders 49% +51
7 Packers W 31–24 @ Lions 55% +45
8 Cowboys W 31–28 vs Chiefs 61% +39
9 Dolphins W 21–17 vs Saints 70% +30
10 Patriots W 33–15 vs Giants 85% +15
11 Bears W 24–15 @ Eagles 87% +14
12 Chargers W 31–14 vs Raiders 90% +10
13 Bills W 26–7 @ Steelers 92% +8
14 49ers W 26–8 @ Browns 95% +5
15 Seahawks W 26–0 vs Vikings 97% +3
16 Jaguars W 25–3 @ Titans 98% +2
17 Titans L 3–25 vs Jaguars 2% −2
18 Vikings L 0–26 @ Seahawks 3% −3
19 Browns L 8–26 vs 49ers 5% −5
20 Steelers L 7–26 vs Bills 8% −8
21 Raiders L 14–31 @ Chargers 10% −10
22 Eagles L 15–24 vs Bears 14% −14
23 Giants L 15–33 @ Patriots 15% −15
24 Saints L 17–21 @ Dolphins 30% −30
25 Chiefs L 28–31 @ Cowboys 39% −39
26 Lions L 24–31 vs Packers 45% −45
27 Commanders L 26–27 vs Broncos 51% −51
28 Ravens L 14–32 vs Bengals 52% −52
29 Colts L 16–20 vs Texans 64% −64
30 Rams L 28–31 @ Panthers 87% −87
31 Falcons L 24–27 @ Jets 89% −89
32 Cardinals L 17–20 @ Buccaneers 93% −93