2025 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2025: game by game

The Browns went 5–12 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bengals	L 16–17	42%	−42
Week 2	@ Ravens	L 17–41	14%	−14
Week 3	vs Packers	W 13–10	18%	+82
Week 4	@ Lions	L 10–34	4%	−4
Week 5	vs Vikings	L 17–21	32%	−32
Week 6	@ Steelers	L 9–23	4%	−4
Week 7	vs Dolphins	W 31–6	76%	+24
Week 8	@ Patriots	L 13–32	1%	−1
Week 10	@ Jets	L 20–27	55%	−55
Week 11	vs Ravens	L 16–23	1%	−1
Week 12	@ Raiders	W 24–10	58%	+42
Week 13	vs 49ers	L 8–26	5%	−5
Week 14	vs Titans	L 29–31	66%	−66
Week 15	@ Bears	L 3–31	1%	−1
Week 16	vs Bills	L 20–23	5%	−5
Week 17	vs Steelers	W 13–6	52%	+48
Week 18	@ Bengals	W 20–18	2%	+98

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −42 vs CIN

Wk 2 −14 @ BAL

Wk 3 +82 vs GB

Wk 4 −4 @ DET

Wk 5 −32 vs MIN

Wk 6 −4 @ PIT

Wk 7 +24 vs MIA

Wk 8 −1 @ NE

Wk 10 −55 @ NYJ

Wk 11 −1 vs BAL

Wk 12 +42 @ LV

Wk 13 −5 vs SF

Wk 14 −66 vs TEN

Wk 15 −1 @ CHI

Wk 16 −5 vs BUF

Wk 17 +48 vs PIT

Wk 18 +98 @ CIN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+1.08	+13.0
Drops	+0.36	+8.7
3rd & 4th downs	+0.02	+1.4
Rest	−0.03	−1.4
Injuries	−0.19	−8.8
Judgment calls	−0.41	−5.2