2024 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2024: game by game

The Browns went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Cowboys	L 17–33	4%	−4
Week 2	@ Jaguars	W 18–13	9%	+91
Week 3	vs Giants	L 15–21	20%	−20
Week 4	@ Raiders	L 16–20	35%	−35
Week 5	@ Commanders	L 13–34	1%	−1
Week 6	@ Eagles	L 16–20	4%	−4
Week 7	vs Bengals	L 14–21	2%	−2
Week 8	vs Ravens	W 29–24	1%	+99
Week 9	vs Chargers	L 10–27	8%	−8
Week 11	@ Saints	L 14–35	30%	−30
Week 12	vs Steelers	W 24–19	28%	+72
Week 13	@ Broncos	L 32–41	29%	−29
Week 14	@ Steelers	L 14–27	14%	−14
Week 15	vs Chiefs	L 7–21	2%	−2
Week 16	@ Bengals	L 6–24	1%	−1
Week 17	vs Dolphins	L 3–20	12%	−12
Week 18	@ Ravens	L 10–35	1%	−1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −4 vs DAL

Wk 2 +91 @ JAX

Wk 3 −20 vs NYG

Wk 4 −35 @ LV

Wk 5 −1 @ WAS

Wk 6 −4 @ PHI

Wk 7 −2 vs CIN

Wk 8 +99 vs BAL

Wk 9 −8 vs LAC

Wk 11 −30 @ NO

Wk 12 +72 vs PIT

Wk 13 −29 @ DEN

Wk 14 −14 @ PIT

Wk 15 −2 vs KC

Wk 16 −1 @ CIN

Wk 17 −12 vs MIA

Wk 18 −1 @ BAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.13	+0.8
Kicks	+0.10	−9.3
Drops	+0.02	−3.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.17	+5.4
Fumble bounces	−0.22	−3.1
Judgment calls	−0.42	+5.3