luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 2, 2024

Browns at Broncos, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Browns 41–32 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:59 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 41 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Cleveland Browns 32
Denver Broncos 41

December 2, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −6.5

Luck index +29 Broncos lucky · −29 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Broncos win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 29 DEN 12
  2. 2 CLE 33 DEN 24
  3. 3 CLE 29 DEN 26
  4. 4 CLE 31 DEN 33
  5. 5 CLE 30 DEN 36
  6. 6 CLE 13 DEN 23
  7. 7 CLE 27 DEN 40
  8. 8 CLE 10 DEN 27
  9. 9 CLE 16 DEN 38
  10. 10 CLE 6 DEN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 29% of them, Broncos 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+6.2%
Browns by 9–168.6%
Browns by 1–813.9%
Level after regulation2.7%
Broncos by 1–821.1%
Broncos by 9–1619.8%
Broncos by 17+27.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Browns: the final margin was Broncos by 9, without the luck Broncos by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Lutz, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 5 for 46 yards, Broncos 4 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 17 yards +4% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 4:11 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 0 yards 0% DEN 0.0 pts
Q3 13:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 19 yards +2% DEN +1.4 pts
Q3 11:17 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 10:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 6 yards +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 9:50 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +2.6 pts
Q3 1:55 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 10:24 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Kris Abrams-Draine), 36 yards +6% CLE +3.4 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:21 D. Hopkins missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 37 of 54 from 45+ before +11% DEN CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:52 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +37% DEN CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:17 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:12 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +20% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:50 The Browns’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q4 11:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +10% CLE CLE: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 1:59 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +41% DEN CLE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Riley Moss (DEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 3% · Broncos 97%

Final margin
Broncos by 9
Luck in points
3.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 29% · Broncos 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Browns · Broncos

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