luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 26–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:03 left): C. McLaughlin made 51-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers. The biggest single swing (QOT, 5:54 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 5.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26
Carolina Panthers 23

December 1, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6.5

Luck index +22 Buccaneers about even · −22 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 TB 51 CAR 19
  2. 2 TB 44 CAR 20
  3. 3 TB 44 CAR 24
  4. 4 TB 47 CAR 32
  5. 5 TB 43 CAR 31
  6. 6 TB 44 CAR 35
  7. 7 TB 28 CAR 23
  8. 8 TB 23 CAR 21
  9. 9 TB 38 CAR 41
  10. 10 TB 20 CAR 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 78% of them, Panthers 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+36.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.6%
Buccaneers by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Panthers by 1–811.2%
Panthers by 9–166.2%
Panthers by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Panthers by 5.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds missed · 90% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 7 for 54 yards, Panthers 7 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 3 yards +5% TB +2.4 pts
Q2 11:39 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% CAR +1.2 pts
Q2 9:42 Low Block on the Buccaneers (Antoine Winfield Jr.), 14 yards +6% CAR +2.4 pts
Q2 9:20 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 6:26 False Start on the Buccaneers (Jalen McMillan), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 3:46 False Start on the Buccaneers (Sterling Shepard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 2:18 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 15 yards +6% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 False Start on the Panthers (David Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 1:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 14 yards +4% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 0:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yards +5% TB +1.4 pts
Q3 13:43 False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 11:15 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards +4% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 3:05 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Buccaneers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
QOT 10:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Caleb Farley), 15 yards 0% TB +1.3 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:28 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
2 Q2 11:43 E. Pineiro missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +10% TB CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:45 E. Pineiro missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 28 of 33 from 45+ before +10% TB CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 4:19 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% CAR TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:03 The game turned hereC. McLaughlin made 51-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 46 of 62 from 45+ before +16% TB TB: Missed field goal
6 QOT 7:17 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TB TB: Missed field goal
7 QOT 6:36 C. McLaughlin missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 47 of 63 from 45+ before +22% CAR TB: Field goal
8 QOT 5:54 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +26% CAR CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tykee Smith (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (TB LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 21% · Panthers 79%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
8.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 78% · Panthers 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Buccaneers · Panthers

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