Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024
Steelers at Bengals, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Bengals 44–38 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:59 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 42 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 44 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Steelers lucky · −32 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Bengals win 3.
- 1 PIT 43 CIN 14
- 2 PIT 44 CIN 23
- 3 PIT 41 CIN 24
- 4 PIT 37 CIN 26
- 5 PIT 41 CIN 34
- 6 PIT 27 CIN 23
- 7 PIT 33 CIN 31
- 8 PIT 21 CIN 24
- 9 PIT 38 CIN 45
- 10 PIT 13 CIN 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 68% of them, Bengals 32%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 22.8% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 24.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 15.6% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 8.3% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 4.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 73% expected
- C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Boswell, 42 yds blocked · 83% expected
- E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Steelers 9 for 103 yards, Bengals 11 for 101 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:06 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q1 12:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 23 yards | +5% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:15 | Taunting on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yards | +3% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:17 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:41 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards | 0% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 11:34 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards | +3% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:47 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 17 yards | +5% CIN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:08 | Face Mask on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 15 yards | +5% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q2 8:09 | False Start on the Steelers, 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 10 yards | +2% PIT +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:05 | False Start on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:54 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yards | +3% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:53 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.2 pts |
| Q3 3:19 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:35 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 11 yards | +2% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 24 yards | +5% CIN +2.5 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Face Mask on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 15 yards | +3% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q4 4:57 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 4 yards | 0% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:56 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.2 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:59 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams | +42% CIN | PIT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:46 | The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | CIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 11:34 | C. Boswell had a 42-yard field goal blockedKicks · 83% expected for him | +11% CIN | PIT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 7:40 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +13% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:30 | T. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 205 catchable balls before this | +6% PIT | CIN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:45 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +11% PIT | CIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:35 | The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% PIT | CIN: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:14 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams | +25% PIT | CIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 51% · Bengals 49%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 6
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 68% · Bengals 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · 
Steelers · 
Bengals
More from Week 13 2024
- Bears at Lions DET 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 27–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Packers GB 30–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 19–17 · replay 47% for the winner
- Cardinals at Vikings MIN 23–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 23–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Colts at Patriots IND 25–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Chargers at Falcons LAC 17–13 · replay 23% for the winner
- Seahawks at Jets SEA 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders WAS 42–19 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Saints LA 21–14 · replay 75% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 26–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Eagles at Ravens PHI 24–19 · replay 37% for the winner
- 49ers at Bills BUF 35–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 41–32 · replay 71% for the winner