luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2024: game by game

The Bengals went 9–8 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.9 wins. Luck cost them 1.9: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–7.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Patriots L 10–16 53% −53
Week 2 @ Chiefs L 25–26 25% −25
Week 3 vs Commanders L 33–38 82% −82
Week 4 @ Panthers W 34–24 78% +22
Week 5 vs Ravens L 38–41 49% −49
Week 6 @ Giants W 17–7 45% +55
Week 7 @ Browns W 21–14 98% +2
Week 8 vs Eagles L 17–37 11% −11
Week 9 vs Raiders W 41–24 98% +2
Week 10 @ Ravens L 34–35 23% −23
Week 11 @ Chargers L 27–34 50% −50
Week 13 vs Steelers L 38–44 32% −32
Week 14 @ Cowboys W 27–20 89% +11
Week 15 @ Titans W 37–27 80% +20
Week 16 vs Browns W 24–6 99% +1
Week 17 vs Broncos W 30–24 89% +11
Week 18 @ Steelers W 19–17 89% +11

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.54+1.9
Injuries+0.09+3.6
Fumble bounces+0.06−4.7
3rd & 4th downs+0.05+3.9
Rest−0.03−1.4
Drops−0.41−17.1
Kicks−0.68−12.6