Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024
Bengals at Titans, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Titans 37–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the Bengals were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:35 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 37 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Bengals about even · −20 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Titans win 2.
- 1 CIN 34 TEN 6
- 2 CIN 37 TEN 16
- 3 CIN 38 TEN 21
- 4 CIN 33 TEN 20
- 5 CIN 16 TEN 6
- 6 CIN 33 TEN 26
- 7 CIN 27 TEN 21
- 8 CIN 18 TEN 16
- 9 CIN 21 TEN 24
- 10 CIN 13 TEN 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 80% of them, Titans 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 31.6% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 26.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| Titans by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. York, 21 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Bengals 14 for 113 yards, Titans 12 for 110 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:36 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jaylen Harrell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 5:55 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 27 yards | +3% TEN +2.0 pts |
| Q1 3:58 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 2:41 | Illegal Formation on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:28 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kenneth Murray), 30 yards | +6% CIN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 14:50 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:30 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:30 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yards | +5% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:18 | False Start on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:47 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Chase Brown), 10 yards | +2% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:22 | Low Block on the Titans, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CIN +3.9 pts |
| Q3 10:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Chidobe Awuzie), 15 yards | 0% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:47 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Marco Wilson), 5 yards | +2% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:25 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | 0% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Ivey), 12 yards | +2% TEN +2.6 pts |
| Q4 12:30 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards | 0% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:36 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:50 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +1.1 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:53 | The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +13% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:09 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% CIN | TEN: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 2:08 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4257 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +15% CIN | TEN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 1:18 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1144 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +13% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 1:12 | The Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +12% CIN | TEN: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 0:06 | C. York made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +12% TEN | CIN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 14:22 | Low Block on the Titans, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CIN | CIN: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 7:35 | The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams | +16% CIN | TEN: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jerome Baker (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Evan McPherson (CIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cody Ford (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
- Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 95% · Titans 5%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 11.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 80% · Titans 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · 
Bengals · 
Titans
More from Week 15 2024
- Rams at 49ers LA 12–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants BAL 35–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers DAL 30–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs at Browns KC 21–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 · replay 74% for the winner
- Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bills at Lions BUF 48–42 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals ARI 30–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 27–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chargers TB 40–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Seahawks GB 30–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 30–12 · replay 84% for the winner
- Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 · replay 86% for the winner