luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Jets at Jaguars, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Jaguars 32–25 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jets were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): the Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 29 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 32
Jacksonville Jaguars 25

December 15, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3.5

Luck index +26 Jets lucky · −26 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 37 JAX 7
  2. 2 NYJ 30 JAX 10
  3. 3 NYJ 30 JAX 16
  4. 4 NYJ 20 JAX 10
  5. 5 NYJ 24 JAX 17
  6. 6 NYJ 20 JAX 16
  7. 7 NYJ 25 JAX 23
  8. 8 NYJ 14 JAX 17
  9. 9 NYJ 12 JAX 19
  10. 10 NYJ 10 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 74% of them, Jaguars 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+23.8%
Jets by 9–1621.0%
Jets by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation4.8%
Jaguars by 1–814.9%
Jaguars by 9–166.4%
Jaguars by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Little, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Carlson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Little, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • A. Carlson, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
  • C. Little, 43 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 62 yards, Jaguars 8 for 106 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Haason Reddick), 10 yards +4% JAX +1.5 pts
Q1 9:12 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 3 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +2.9 pts
Q1 4:54 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q1 3:55 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +4% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q1 2:11 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 15 yards +5% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q1 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 12 yards +3% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q1 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +2.5 pts
Q2 14:14 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +7% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q2 7:02 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% JAX 0.0 pts
Q2 1:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Andrew Wingard), 15 yards +5% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 0:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 19 yards +1% JAX +1.5 pts
Q3 12:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 30 yards +9% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q3 10:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% NYJ +4.1 pts
Q3 5:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 4 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 3:24 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.5 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1342 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q3 10:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 576 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +18% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:53 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:04 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +14% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +17% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 1:41 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:22 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +25% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:44 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.8 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Conklin (NYJ TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 81% · Jaguars 19%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
3.2 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 74% · Jaguars 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Jets · Jaguars

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