luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 16, 2024

Bears at Vikings, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 30–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:42 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 27 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Chicago Bears 12
Minnesota Vikings 30

December 16, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −7

Luck index +16 Vikings about even · −16 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 20 MIN 9
  2. 2 CHI 16 MIN 13
  3. 3 CHI 12 MIN 14
  4. 4 CHI 12 MIN 17
  5. 5 CHI 10 MIN 17
  6. 6 CHI 13 MIN 23
  7. 7 CHI 26 MIN 40
  8. 8 CHI 13 MIN 30
  9. 9 CHI 6 MIN 27
  10. 10 CHI 3 MIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 16% of them, Vikings 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.0%
Bears by 9–164.2%
Bears by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation1.1%
Vikings by 1–825.0%
Vikings by 9–1622.7%
Vikings by 17+35.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.8 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 18, without the luck Bears by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Reichard, 46 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 9 for 93 yards, Vikings 10 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:54 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 14:02 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CHI +1.6 pts
Q2 7:25 Running Into the Kicker on the Vikings (Trent Sherfield), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 3:50 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +6% MIN +2.1 pts
Q2 2:10 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 0:16 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Montez Sweat), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 10 yards +1% CHI +1.5 pts
Q3 13:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (Terell Smith), 10 yards +1% MIN +1.1 pts
Q3 13:59 False Start on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.3 pts
Q3 13:47 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +2% MIN +1.2 pts
Q3 8:23 Illegal Substitution on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% MIN +1.3 pts
Q3 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.6 pts
Q3 6:56 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CHI +1.8 pts
Q3 4:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kevin Byard), 8 yards +2% MIN +2.1 pts
Q3 1:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jamin Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.6 pts
Q4 13:18 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.7 pts
Q4 10:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 30 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIN +5.8 pts
Q4 6:23 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.8 pts
Q4 5:19 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CHI 0.0 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% MIN CHI: Turnover
2 Q1 12:16 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% CHI MIN: Field goal
3 Q1 7:42 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% MIN CHI: Punt
4 Q2 13:09 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q2 9:43 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% CHI MIN: Field goal
6 Q2 3:50 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 2:39 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% MIN CHI: End of half
8 Q4 10:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 30 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1604 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Gilmore (MIN CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Bates (CHI C), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 56% · Vikings 44%

Final margin
Vikings by 18
Luck in points
18.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Bears 16% · Vikings 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Bears · Vikings

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