luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Cowboys at Panthers, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Panthers 30–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:03 left): B. Aubrey missed 70-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 30
Carolina Panthers 14

December 15, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +19 Cowboys about even · −19 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 DAL 38 CAR 10
  2. 2 DAL 34 CAR 13
  3. 3 DAL 27 CAR 10
  4. 4 DAL 37 CAR 24
  5. 5 DAL 30 CAR 20
  6. 6 DAL 24 CAR 17
  7. 7 DAL 18 CAR 13
  8. 8 DAL 16 CAR 13
  9. 9 DAL 24 CAR 27
  10. 10 DAL 10 CAR 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 81% of them, Panthers 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+32.3%
Cowboys by 9–1622.1%
Cowboys by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation2.2%
Panthers by 1–810.3%
Panthers by 9–166.1%
Panthers by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.8 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Cowboys by 16, without the luck Cowboys by 27.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 52 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 70 yds missed · 54% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 45 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 14 for 99 yards, Panthers 8 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:00 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% CAR +3.0 pts
Q1 7:01 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Amani Oruwariye), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 1:46 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.5 pts
Q1 0:24 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Israel Mukuamu), 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 14:14 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 4:14 False Start on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 3:18 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 1:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +3% DAL +1.3 pts
Q2 1:06 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CAR +1.6 pts
Q3 11:23 False Start on the Panthers (Deven Thompkins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 0:13 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 14:55 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 10:58 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.2 pts
Q4 10:03 False Start on the Panthers (Adam Thielen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 9:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Andrew Booth), 20 yards +1% CAR +3.8 pts
Q4 9:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 4 yards 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 9:25 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q4 9:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yards 0% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 4:51 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 5 yards 0% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 4:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 4:43 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Carl Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.1 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:00 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% CAR CAR: Turnover
2 Q1 12:04 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% CAR DAL: Punt
3 Q1 2:52 The Panthers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DAL CAR: Punt
4 Q2 11:08 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:07 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:28 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% DAL CAR: Punt
7 Q2 0:45 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% CAR DAL: Missed field goal
8 Q2 0:03 B. Aubrey missed 70-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 30 of 31 from 45+ before +23% CAR DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 99% · Panthers 1%

Final margin
Cowboys by 16
Luck in points
11.8 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 27.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 81% · Panthers 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Cowboys · Panthers

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