luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Dolphins at Texans, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Dolphins 20–12 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:33 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Miami Dolphins 12
Houston Texans 20

December 15, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +29 Texans lucky · −29 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Texans win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 23 HOU 6
  2. 2 MIA 17 HOU 10
  3. 3 MIA 24 HOU 21
  4. 4 MIA 3 HOU 6
  5. 5 MIA 18 HOU 24
  6. 6 MIA 14 HOU 23
  7. 7 MIA 5 HOU 16
  8. 8 MIA 10 HOU 23
  9. 9 MIA 0 HOU 17
  10. 10 MIA 12 HOU 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 29% of them, Texans 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+3.1%
Dolphins by 9–167.9%
Dolphins by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation4.3%
Texans by 1–824.0%
Texans by 9–1622.6%
Texans by 17+22.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 8, without the luck Dolphins by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Sanders, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Sanders, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 64 yards, Texans 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:09 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Channing Tindall), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 6:59 Encroachment on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 12:59 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 9 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +2.0 pts
Q2 10:07 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +2% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 8:00 Encroachment on the Dolphins (Benito Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 4:07 Low Block on the Texans (Eric Murray), 15 yards +6% MIA +1.1 pts
Q2 2:58 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +7% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 0:38 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Danielle Hunter), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q3 12:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% HOU +7.4 pts
Q3 9:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Calen Bullock), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.7 pts
Q3 7:27 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +4% HOU +1.9 pts
Q3 4:40 Defensive Offside on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.2 pts
Q4 7:50 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIA +1.8 pts
Q4 4:20 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:33 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% HOU MIA: Field goal
2 Q2 0:53 The Texans fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q3 12:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:37 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:03 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% MIA HOU: Punt
7 Q4 12:44 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% MIA MIA: Turnover
8 Q4 10:34 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% HOU MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 48% · Texans 52%

Final margin
Texans by 8
Luck in points
8.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 29% · Texans 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Dolphins · Texans

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