luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Miami Dolphins, 2024: game by game

The Dolphins went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Jaguars W 20–17 80% +20
Week 2 vs Bills L 10–31 33% −33
Week 3 @ Seahawks L 3–24 42% −42
Week 4 vs Titans L 12–31 52% −52
Week 5 @ Patriots W 15–10 32% +68
Week 7 @ Colts L 10–16 24% −24
Week 8 vs Cardinals L 27–28 7% −7
Week 9 @ Bills L 27–30 17% −17
Week 10 @ Rams W 23–15 28% +72
Week 11 vs Raiders W 34–19 58% +42
Week 12 vs Patriots W 34–15 90% +10
Week 13 @ Packers L 17–30 10% −10
Week 14 vs Jets W 32–26 53% +47
Week 15 @ Texans L 12–20 29% −29
Week 16 vs 49ers W 29–17 27% +73
Week 17 @ Browns W 20–3 88% +12
Week 18 @ Jets L 20–32 1% −1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Drops+0.20+7.9
Rest−0.02−0.8
Judgment calls−0.04−5.8
Fumble bounces−0.08+3.1
3rd & 4th downs−0.11−1.7
Kicks−0.64+9.8
Injuries−1.05−36.8