luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Dolphins at Colts, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Dolphins 16–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:19 left): J. Sanders missed 54-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Miami Dolphins 10
Indianapolis Colts 16

October 20, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +24 Colts about even · −24 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 30 IND 17
  2. 2 MIA 20 IND 16
  3. 3 MIA 10 IND 12
  4. 4 MIA 43 IND 47
  5. 5 MIA 16 IND 23
  6. 6 MIA 20 IND 30
  7. 7 MIA 12 IND 24
  8. 8 MIA 3 IND 19
  9. 9 MIA 9 IND 30
  10. 10 MIA 9 IND 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 24% of them, Colts 76%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+2.3%
Dolphins by 9–167.0%
Dolphins by 1–812.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Colts by 1–826.4%
Colts by 9–1621.0%
Colts by 17+28.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.4 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 6, without the luck Dolphins by 8.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 54 yds missed · 67% expected
  • M. Gay, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 6 for 50 yards, Colts 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:38 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Raekwon Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +1.1 pts
Q1 5:56 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Will Mallory), 10 yards +1% MIA +1.0 pts
Q1 3:28 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Tyus Bowser), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q1 0:18 Low Block on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 11:57 False Start on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q2 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Durham Smythe), 10 yards +3% IND +1.3 pts
Q2 7:30 Face Mask on the Dolphins, 15 yards +4% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 3:20 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 13:15 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 10:07 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:02 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:41 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% IND IND: Turnover
3 Q2 6:04 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedO. Beckham dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 42 catchable balls before this +8% IND MIA: Punt
4 Q3 3:43 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% MIA MIA: Turnover
5 Q3 3:02 The Dolphins fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% IND MIA: Punt
6 Q4 12:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 5:19 J. Sanders missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 54 of 78 from 45+ before +19% IND MIA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:11 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +10% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • E.J. Speed (IND LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out (IR), replaced by t.huntley · 7.5 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 75% · Colts 25%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
14.4 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 24% · Colts 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Dolphins · Colts

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