luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Panthers at Commanders, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Panthers 40–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:27 left): Return touchdown by the Commanders, worth 56 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Carolina Panthers 7
Washington Commanders 40

October 20, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −10

Luck index +2 Commanders about even · −2 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 23 WAS 27
  2. 2 CAR 24 WAS 33
  3. 3 CAR 13 WAS 24
  4. 4 CAR 26 WAS 40
  5. 5 CAR 13 WAS 29
  6. 6 CAR 23 WAS 42
  7. 7 CAR 9 WAS 31
  8. 8 CAR 16 WAS 42
  9. 9 CAR 10 WAS 41
  10. 10 CAR 0 WAS 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 2% of them, Commanders 98%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.4%
Panthers by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Commanders by 1–85.7%
Commanders by 9–1614.8%
Commanders by 17+77.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 33, without the luck Commanders by 25.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Seibert, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • A. Seibert, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 6 for 59 yards, Commanders 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 8:19 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 2:37 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Clelin Ferrell), 10 yards +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 1:11 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 12:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Chau Smith-Wade), 29 yards +1% WAS +1.9 pts
Q2 7:04 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Chau Smith-Wade), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 6:21 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +2.1 pts
Q2 1:22 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Dane Jackson), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 1:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Marquis Haynes), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 13:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +1.0 pts
Q3 7:17 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 5:42 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +1.6 pts
Q3 2:37 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Phidarian Mathis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3089 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +2% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 11:27 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +56% WAS CAR: Punt
3 Q1 9:50 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% WAS CAR: Punt
4 Q1 7:14 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +2% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q1 4:02 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% CAR WAS: Field goal
6 Q1 0:47 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +2% CAR WAS: Punt
7 Q2 14:19 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% WAS CAR: Punt
8 Q2 7:34 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +3% WAS CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (CAR DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Commanders 100%

Final margin
Commanders by 33
Luck in points
7.3 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 25.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 2% · Commanders 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Panthers · Commanders

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