luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Eagles at Giants, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 28–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Giants: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 32% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:14 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 28
New York Giants 3

October 20, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +1 Eagles about even · −1 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 PHI 44 NYG 6
  2. 2 PHI 36 NYG 3
  3. 3 PHI 33 NYG 4
  4. 4 PHI 30 NYG 3
  5. 5 PHI 33 NYG 9
  6. 6 PHI 20 NYG 0
  7. 7 PHI 27 NYG 10
  8. 8 PHI 34 NYG 20
  9. 9 PHI 31 NYG 24
  10. 10 PHI 27 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Giants

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 32% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

31 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.14 better by 0.03
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.35 +0.10 better by 0.46
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.35 −0.00 worse by 0.35
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.10 worse by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 99% of them, Giants 1%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+89.2%
Eagles by 9–168.0%
Eagles by 1–82.0%
Level after regulation0.2%
Giants by 1–80.5%
Giants by 9–160.1%
Giants by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 25, without the luck Eagles by 20.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eagles 6 for 35 yards, Giants 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Eagles (Oren Burks), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q1 7:52 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 5:31 False Start on the Giants (Matthew Adams), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.3 pts
Q1 5:25 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Jalyx Hunt), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 12:30 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% NYG +3.0 pts
Q2 8:31 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +1.5 pts
Q2 1:53 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Eagles (Sydney Brown), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 0:37 Encroachment on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 0:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% PHI +4.5 pts
Q3 7:20 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Azeez Ojulari), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 2:26 Roughing the Kicker on the Giants (Tomon Fox), 15 yards 0% PHI +2.3 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% PHI NYG: Punt
2 Q1 9:15 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% PHI NYG: Punt
3 Q1 7:52 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% NYG PHI: Punt
4 Q1 6:06 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% PHI NYG: Punt
5 Q2 12:30 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 932 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +12% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q2 8:31 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:34 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 367 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +12% PHI PHI: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 25
Luck in points
4.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 20.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 99% · Giants 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Eagles · Giants

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