luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2024: game by game

The Eagles went 14–3 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.8 wins. Luck added 2.2: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–2.

Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 3.3.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers W 34–29 24% +76
Week 2 vs Falcons L 21–22 65% −65
Week 3 @ Saints W 15–12 90% +10
Week 4 @ Buccaneers L 16–33 15% −15
Week 6 vs Browns W 20–16 96% +4
Week 7 @ Giants W 28–3 99% +1
Week 8 @ Bengals W 37–17 89% +11
Week 9 vs Jaguars W 28–23 60% +40
Week 10 @ Cowboys W 34–6 99% +1
Week 11 vs Commanders W 26–18 38% +62
Week 12 @ Rams W 37–20 95% +5
Week 13 @ Ravens W 24–19 37% +63
Week 14 vs Panthers W 22–16 68% +32
Week 15 vs Steelers W 27–13 84% +16
Week 16 @ Commanders L 33–36 42% −42
Week 17 vs Cowboys W 41–7 95% +5
Week 18 vs Giants W 20–13 82% +18
Wild Card vs Packers W 22–10 84% +16
Divisional round vs Rams W 28–22 69% +31
NFC Championship vs Commanders W 55–23 92% +8
Super Bowl vs Chiefs W 40–22 84% +16

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.82+5.8
Drops+0.50+14.6
Rest+0.06+2.4
Judgment calls−0.10−7.2
Fumble bounces−0.11−1.6
Injuries−0.43−14.0
Kicks−0.59+1.6