luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 41–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:55 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 55 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 7
Philadelphia Eagles 41

December 29, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −7.5

Luck index +5 Eagles about even · −5 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 DAL 21 PHI 16
  2. 2 DAL 14 PHI 17
  3. 3 DAL 20 PHI 26
  4. 4 DAL 17 PHI 27
  5. 5 DAL 19 PHI 31
  6. 6 DAL 16 PHI 31
  7. 7 DAL 17 PHI 34
  8. 8 DAL 3 PHI 23
  9. 9 DAL 6 PHI 31
  10. 10 DAL 7 PHI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 5% of them, Eagles 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.4%
Cowboys by 9–160.9%
Cowboys by 1–83.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Eagles by 1–815.1%
Eagles by 9–1621.2%
Eagles by 17+57.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 34, without the luck Eagles by 25.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 61 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 8 for 69 yards, Eagles 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:47 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 5 yards +4% DAL +1.8 pts
Q1 5:28 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 14:26 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 10 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 12:15 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Andrew Booth), 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% PHI +2.9 pts
Q2 3:15 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 0:00 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q3 14:19 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 14 yards 0% PHI +1.2 pts
Q3 8:56 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DAL +3.8 pts
Q3 2:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.5 pts
Q3 2:48 False Start on the Eagles (Grant Calcaterra), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 14:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards 0% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 10:03 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Israel Mukuamu), 10 yards 0% PHI +0.8 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +55% PHI DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:28 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:47 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1034 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:15 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Andrew Booth), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 523 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:38 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% PHI DAL: Turnover
8 Q2 0:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% PHI DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), out, replaced by k.pickett · 5.0 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 34
Luck in points
8.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 25.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 5% · Eagles 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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