luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 28, 2024

Chargers at Patriots, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Patriots 40–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:11 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 40
New England Patriots 7

December 28, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −6

Luck index +8 Chargers about even · −8 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 33 NE 3
  2. 2 LAC 26 NE 3
  3. 3 LAC 26 NE 7
  4. 4 LAC 24 NE 7
  5. 5 LAC 36 NE 23
  6. 6 LAC 34 NE 23
  7. 7 LAC 20 NE 13
  8. 8 LAC 21 NE 16
  9. 9 LAC 23 NE 20
  10. 10 LAC 13 NE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 92% of them, Patriots 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+52.6%
Chargers by 9–1622.3%
Chargers by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–85.3%
Patriots by 9–162.0%
Patriots by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 33, without the luck Chargers by 22.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Dicker, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Dicker, 35 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 54 yards, Patriots 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Troy Dye), 8 yards +1% NE +1.1 pts
Q1 8:14 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Jonathan Jones), 5 yards 0% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 10:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Junior Colson), 15 yards +5% NE +1.9 pts
Q2 9:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots, 10 yards +2% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 9:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 8 yards +4% NE +1.2 pts
Q2 0:17 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Yannick Ngakoue), 15 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 0:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Jamycal Hasty), 0 yards 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 13:19 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 6 yards 0% NE +0.5 pts
Q3 3:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 12 yards 0% NE +3.5 pts
Q3 1:29 Horse Collar Tackle on the Patriots, 15 yards 0% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 11:32 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% LAC +2.3 pts
Q4 6:25 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.3 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:27 The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% LAC LAC: Punt
2 Q1 11:54 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% NE LAC: Punt
3 Q1 6:46 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:11 The Chargers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +16% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Junior Colson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 259 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q2 9:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3056 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +4% NE NE: Turnover
7 Q2 8:39 The Patriots fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC NE: Touchdown
8 Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4691 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +4% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ben Brown (NE G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Chargers by 33
Luck in points
10.6 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 22.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 92% · Patriots 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Chargers · Patriots

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