Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024
Falcons at Commanders, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?
The Commanders beat the Falcons 30–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: drops alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Before kickoff the Commanders were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:02 left): R. Patterson missed 56-yard field goal, worth 32 points of win probability to the Commanders. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:55 left): O. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable pass.
Final (OT)
 Atlanta Falcons | 24 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Commanders about even · −20 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Commanders win 8.
- 1 ATL 34 WAS 22
- 2 ATL 20 WAS 17
- 3 ATL 26 WAS 28
- 4 ATL 24 WAS 27
- 5 ATL 28 WAS 34
- 6 ATL 13 WAS 22
- 7 ATL 9 WAS 21
- 8 ATL 23 WAS 38
- 9 ATL 7 WAS 28
- 10 ATL 16 WAS 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 20% of them, Commanders 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 1.8% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 27.7% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 28.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 39 yds made · 87% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- R. Patterson, 56 yds missed · 61% expected
Penalties: Falcons 4 for 25 yards, Commanders 13 for 108 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:53 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% ATL +2.8 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 5 yards | +5% ATL +2.4 pts |
| Q1 2:07 | False Start on the Falcons (Charlie Woerner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WAS +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:41 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards | +3% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:08 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards | +1% ATL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:20 | Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Dante Fowler), 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:52 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Darrick Forrest), 10 yards | +3% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards | +1% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 13:46 | Illegal Contact on the Falcons (DeAngelo Malone), 5 yards | +5% WAS +3.2 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ATL +2.1 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +13% ATL +3.6 pts |
| Q4 4:08 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% WAS +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 13 yards | +17% ATL +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% ATL +0.2 pts |
| QOT 10:00 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% ATL +0.5 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:54 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +16% WAS | ATL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 4:43 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 2:34 | The Falcons converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +21% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 1:23 | The Falcons converted 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +19% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 0:55 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedO. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 104 catchable balls before this | +44% ATL | WAS: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 4920 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 13 flags in 5440 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +23% ATL | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:02 | The game turned hereR. Patterson missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 13 of 16 from 45+ before | +32% WAS | – |
| 8 | QOT 7:34 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +19% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Andrew Wylie (WAS G), out · 0.3 pts
- Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 3% · Commanders 97%
- Final margin
- Commanders by 6
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Commanders by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 20% · Commanders 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · 
Falcons · 
Commanders
More from Week 17 2024
- Chiefs at Steelers KC 29–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ravens at Texans BAL 31–2 · replay 97% for the winner
- Seahawks at Bears SEA 6–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Patriots LAC 40–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Broncos at Bengals CIN 30–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 13–9 · replay 17% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 41–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Colts at Giants NYG 45–33 · replay 31% for the winner
- Raiders at Saints LV 25–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 40–14 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–13 · replay 61% for the winner
- Dolphins at Browns MIA 20–3 · replay 88% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 27–25 · replay 81% for the winner
- Lions at 49ers DET 40–34 · replay 38% for the winner